# The End Is Nigh

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 583470
- Developer: Edmund McMillen
- Released: 2017 · Genre: Action · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.5k to $3.8k per month (mid $3.2k)
- Opportunity score: $6.7k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 179.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $579.7k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 3481 reviews (3271 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 39.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 6.9 years
- Studio active elsewhere (6 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 6.7 years ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 5 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.0 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

14, 13, 12, 17, 26, 22, 18, 10, 19, 14, 20, 37, 18, 10, 26, 16, 38, 21, 15, 61, 41, 44, 34, 41

## Estimated acquisition range

$76.0k to $152.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $38.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2017 pixel-art platformer by Edmund McMillen featuring punishing difficulty, dense level design, and dark narrative themes.

The End Is Nigh remains a quietly profitable title generating $3,168/mo in residual revenue across a $579K lifetime base. The 93.6% positive rating and 39 reviews/month signal genuine, ongoing player affection despite no developer activity in 83 months. The game's comparisons to Super Meat Boy and player intensity suggest a cult platformer audience willing to pay full price; opportunity lies in dormant IP licensing (spiritual successor, merchandise, adaptation) rather than direct acquisition.

- Most realistic play: licensing
- Risk (market): Indie platformer fatigue and genre saturation mean revival campaigns face high acquisition-cost barriers; $6,653/mo opportunity assumes pricing or market conditions hold.
- Risk (tech): 80-month build age and 83-month dev silence raise questions about codebase maintenance and potential platform deprecation risk.
- Risk (other): Player sentiment suggests the game's difficulty and emotional tone create a narrow, self-selected audience; porting or sequel risk is high if design philosophy shifts.

What players are asking for:
- Sequel or spiritual successor with similar design DNA
- Port to additional platforms (Switch, console rumored but unconfirmed)
- Developer commentary or behind-the-scenes content

Suggested first moves:
1. Secure licensing agreement with McMillen to greenlight a spiritual successor under IP option, leveraging his six-title catalog for co-marketing synergy.
2. Commission market analysis on console port economics; Switch presence could unlock 2-3x install base at modest dev cost.
3. Explore limited merchandise or adaptation opportunities (animated short, collector's edition) to extend IP revenue without new development.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/583470
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.