# The Siege and the Sandfox

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 653060
- Developer: Cardboard Sword
- Publisher: PLAION
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $385 to $578 per month (mid $482)
- Opportunity score: $650/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 5.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $28.1k
- Review sentiment: 65% positive across 206 reviews (175 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 15 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 15 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $874 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $761 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $689 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $482 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (15 months)

108, 15, 10, 2, 3, 7, 3, 6, 5, 3, 7, 0, 0, 7, 6

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 15 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$942 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$11.6k to $23.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $5.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 3%
- german: 1%
- english: 75%
- russian: 2%
- spanish: 3%
- japanese: 4%
- brazilian: 2%
- koreana: 3%
- schinese: 7%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/653060
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.