# BLUE REFLECTION

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 658260
- Developer: KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
- Released: 2017 · Genre: RPG · List price: $59.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.1k to $1.7k per month (mid $1.4k)
- Opportunity score: $3.6k/month at x2.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 69.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $897.9k
- Review sentiment: 80% positive across 1485 reviews (1266 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 4.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 8.9 years
- Studio active elsewhere (76 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 8.9 years ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 1.2 years (deepest tracked: -75%)
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.1 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.5k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

17, 7, 16, 7, 12, 18, 7, 6, 3, 4, 16, 9, 5, 8, 5, 4, 2, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, 1, 6

## Estimated acquisition range

$33.5k to $67.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $16.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2017 Japanese school-based tactical RPG from Koei Tecmo built around relationships and turn-based combat.

Blue Reflection earned ~$898K lifetime on 69.6K sales at $59.99 retail, now generating ~$1.4K/mo residual with 80% positive reviews and minimal velocity loss over 107 months. The title shows sticky community affection despite no developer updates since launch; it remains a quiet earner suitable for portfolio acquisition or back-catalog revival if Koei Tecmo considers licensing or IP carve-out. Franchise potential is present but audience is niche and reviews suggest undermarketing rather than design failure.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): School-setting JRPGs with relationship mechanics have narrowed appeal; sequel (Blue Reflection Tie) launched 2024 and may fragment the audience.
- Risk (other): No developer engagement for 107 months suggests Koei Tecmo has moved focus; revival would require fresh marketing investment.
- Risk (other): Price elasticity of 2.07 indicates strong sensitivity to discounting, but last deep sale was 14 months ago, risking price-fixing stagnation.

Suggested first moves:
1. Request Koei Tecmo's internal metrics on Blue Reflection vs. Tie sequels to assess franchise splitting and IP consolidation strategy.
2. Model refresh scenario: light marketing push + seasonal 40-50% discount + community event coordination; test whether $1.4K/mo can sustain 2.5-3K/mo with no content cost.
3. Audit intellectual property ownership and any platform-exclusive arrangements; confirm Koei Tecmo is sole rights holder if acquisition of back-catalog titles is under consideration.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/658260
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.