# Deceive Inc.

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 820520
- Developer: Sweet Bandits Studios
- Publisher: Tripwire Presents
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.6k to $2.5k per month (mid $2.1k)
- Opportunity score: $2.7k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 151.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $757.0k
- Review sentiment: 81% positive across 7867 reviews (4746 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 16.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 21 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $3.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

39, 27, 15, 54, 45, 28, 21, 28, 16, 10, 22, 17, 8, 14, 9, 44, 29, 12, 24, 18, 9, 15, 4, 29

## Estimated acquisition range

$49.3k to $98.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $24.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Deceive Inc. is a stylish multiplayer heist game where players compete as rival thieves using stealth, disguise and sabotage.

Deceive Inc. shows durable engagement metrics (81% positive, 2,000+/mo residual) and a core audience that clearly articulates a single blocker: premium pricing in a competitive multiplayer space. The game launched at $19.99 in a crowded stealth-PvP market where free-to-play is now table stakes. With one developer post in the past month and minimal recent sales velocity, this is a quiet title with revival potential if the business model shifts; the community consensus is near-unanimous that F2P conversion would unlock adoption.

- Most realistic play: revival
- Risk (market): Premium multiplayer games without established IP face structural headwinds; player base may not recover even with F2P unless paired with live-service infrastructure (seasonal content, cosmetics, ranked progression).
- Risk (multiplayer): Current matchmaking pool appears shallow (velocity flat since 2023 launch); cold-start problem will persist unless acquisition includes resources for marketing push and content roadmap.
- Risk (other): Developer communication is sparse (one post in 1.1 months); unclear if Sweet Bandits has bandwidth for post-acquisition live ops, or if publisher Tripwire Presents has appetite to fund revival.

What players are asking for:
- Convert to free-to-play model
- Add cosmetic/battle pass monetization
- Introduce new objective types to extend gameplay loop
- Restore or improve lobby system

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit live-ops roadmap and cosmetic pipeline; confirm whether Tripwire/Sweet Bandits have F2P launch assets ready or if greenfield development is needed.
2. Stress-test retention and ARPU assumptions under F2P with early access cohort; current $2,000/mo may shift dramatically depending on cosmetic pricing and battle pass design.
3. Map competitive landscape (Hitman trilogy, Spies in Disguise, Naraka Bladepoint) and define differentiation hook that justifies player re-acquisition cost in a saturated genre.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/820520
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.