# Dicey Dungeons

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 861540
- Developer: Terry Cavanagh
- Released: 2019 · Genre: Indie · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.5k to $5.2k per month (mid $4.3k)
- Opportunity score: $9.1k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 414.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.3M
- Review sentiment: 89% positive across 11797 reviews (10362 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 53.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 4.1 years
- Studio active elsewhere (4 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 4.1 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $7.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $6.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

61, 50, 43, 54, 81, 68, 46, 65, 42, 34, 48, 48, 44, 33, 32, 34, 42, 51, 35, 44, 37, 100, 43, 64

## Estimated acquisition range

$104.1k to $208.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $52.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A colorful, turn-based roguelike deck-builder where six playable characters manage dice rolls and status effects across bite-sized episodes, each with escalating challenges.

Dicey Dungeons has generated $1.34M lifetime on 414k units sold and maintains 89% positive sentiment with steady 54 monthly reviews, despite being 4 years post-launch with no developer updates. The title sits quiet but profitable, earning $4.3k-$5.2k/mo residually, and appeals to players seeking short-session, high-replayability strategy games. For publishers seeking a low-risk evergreen catalog acquisition or revival campaign, this represents proven design with minimal ongoing cost and significant untapped IP extension potential (board game, merchandise, platform ports).

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (market): Deck-building roguelikes have become crowded (Slay the Spire, Balatro, Monster Train); newer entrants may cannibalize sales if price or positioning strategy shifts.
- Risk (tech): 48-month build age and zero developer posts in 4 years suggest no active maintenance; platform updates, OS changes, or controller support gaps could degrade experience on newer hardware.
- Risk (other): Heavy reliance on Chipzel's soundtrack (noted across reviews as a core appeal); licensing terms for future ports or adaptations need early clarification.

What players are asking for:
- More character variety and playstyle depth (one reviewer noted only the final unlock feels dynamic enough)
- Persistent progression or ladder system beyond per-episode runs (mastery feels lost once a run ends)
- Cross-platform or mobile ports to extend session flexibility
- Post-game content or extended hard-mode campaigns for 100+ hour players

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit Chipzel licensing scope and cost for planned ports (mobile, Switch, PlayStation) before committing to acquisition; this is the single largest IP-adjacent risk.
2. Conduct player cohort analysis on the 414k-unit base: identify what % are still engaged monthly and which character unlocks drive longest retention, to stress-test both the dormancy risk and the upside of a targeted content update.
3. Model a lightweight Season 1 (3-4 new characters + hard-mode epilogue) under your publishing economics; even $2k-3k/mo incremental spend on QA and platform porting could lift residual to $8k-12k/mo given the 89% sentiment floor and proven elasticity (1.27).

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/861540
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.