# Tails Noir

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 865610
- Developer: Eggnut
- Publisher: Raw Fury
- Released: 2021 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.6k to $3.9k per month (mid $3.2k)
- Opportunity score: $4.9k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 82.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $514.4k
- Review sentiment: 67% positive across 3465 reviews (2580 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 20.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 4 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 3.0 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.0 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

22, 38, 28, 25, 29, 12, 20, 17, 22, 16, 11, 20, 6, 10, 25, 13, 29, 55, 8, 39, 24, 14, 16, 24

## Estimated acquisition range

$77.9k to $155.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $38.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative adventure game with noir aesthetic and deduction puzzles that launched in 2021 to mixed reception around story structure.

Tails Noir has generated ~$514k lifetime on 82.5k units sold, with a modest $3.2k/mo residual revenue stream. The core tension is execution: the art direction and early puzzle design attracted players, but narrative coherence issues in Act II created persistent negative word-of-mouth that suppressed full-price sales (66.9% positive, $24.99 retail, high price elasticity of 2.01). Revival is unlikely without narrative rework; acquisition only makes sense if Raw Fury/Eggnut retain IP and a developer is willing to substantially rewrite the second half.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Narrative structure issues documented across multiple reviews suggest fundamental story design flaws that no marketing campaign can overcome; fixing requires authorial rework.
- Risk (tech): 36+ months since launch with no developer posts in ~4 months; small studio (1 title) signals low capacity for updates or live support.
- Risk (other): High elasticity (2.01) indicates customers perceive the $24.99 price as significantly high; discounting to ~$10-15 may unlock volume but erodes margin on residual stream.

What players are asking for:
- Narrative coherence in Act II; players describe missing chapters and logical discontinuities
- Clearer story resolution or better signposting of intentional open endings
- Balance between philosophical dialogue and plot pacing

Suggested first moves:
1. Conduct player exit interviews (especially 3-8h playthroughs) to confirm whether Act II issues are fixable via pacing/editing or require wholesale rewrite.
2. Model scenario pricing: at $12.99-14.99 (per elasticity curve), what monthly volume uplift offsets margin compression?
3. If Eggnut has design docs for planned Act II revisions, evaluate feasibility within a 6-month indie budget; if none exist, treat as a creative revival only (not acquisition).

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/865610
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.