# Psychedelica of the Black Butterfly

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 865820
- Developer: IDEA FACTORY
- Publisher: Intragames
- Released: 2018 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $795 to $1.2k per month (mid $994)
- Opportunity score: $2.1k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 41.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $264.6k
- Review sentiment: 85% positive across 910 reviews (821 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 7.6 years
- Studio active elsewhere (37 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 7.3 years ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.5 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $994 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

9, 10, 2, 9, 14, 11, 7, 6, 2, 8, 8, 7, 11, 1, 8, 9, 12, 10, 10, 8, 2, 2, 8, 7

## Estimated acquisition range

$23.9k to $47.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $11.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2018 supernatural visual novel from Idea Factory exploring memory, identity and fate through an otome framework with surreal art direction.

Psychedelica of the Black Butterfly generates $994/mo in residual revenue on a $30 price point with 85% positive reviews and steady (if modest) monthly sales of 0.6 units. The player base explicitly values its narrative and world-building over romance mechanics, suggesting the game's core appeal transcends its otome categorization. For a publisher or platform seeking catalog depth in underserved narrative genres, this title represents low-risk sustained income and a proven creative asset with shelf stability.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Visual novel genre remains niche on Steam; audience discovery via traditional marketing is expensive and returns diminish quickly.
- Risk (other): Developer last posted 91.6 months ago; no updates or community engagement signal suggests the studio has moved to other projects.

What players are asking for:
- Sequel or spiritual successor in the same narrative universe
- Enhanced character route depth and player choice branching
- Localization to additional languages

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit Idea Factory's IP ownership and negotiation posture on this title; confirm publishing rights clarity with Intragames.
2. Map player overlap with other narrative-first VN audiences (e.g., Oxenfree, VA-11 Hall-A) to design a targeted revival campaign with modest paid media.
3. Evaluate localization ROI: test Japanese or Korean markets where visual novel affinity is higher and willingness-to-pay may exceed $30.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/865820
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.