# PARANOID

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 946920
- Developer: Madmind Studio
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Action · List price: $17.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $523 to $785 per month (mid $654)
- Opportunity score: $850/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 9.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $40.3k
- Review sentiment: 43% positive across 301 reviews (281 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 5.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 8 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (6 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 31 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $935 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $654 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

3, 7, 9, 3, 4, 7, 6, 3, 2, 3, 7, 4, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 2, 6, 8, 4, 2, 12, 3

## Estimated acquisition range

$15.7k to $31.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $7.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/946920
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.