# 河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon)

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 952860
- Developer: 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
- Released: 2018 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $17.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.4k to $3.6k per month (mid $3.0k)
- Opportunity score: $5.5k/month at x1.85 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 479.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.9M
- Review sentiment: 82% positive across 11072 reviews (9594 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 30.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 15 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 4.5 years ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.7k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

51, 39, 19, 38, 51, 33, 35, 30, 30, 33, 36, 48, 32, 30, 34, 21, 36, 23, 26, 33, 34, 36, 25, 31

## Estimated acquisition range

$71.5k to $143.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $35.8k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A story-rich Chinese martial-arts adventure from 2018 that has quietly sustained $2.9k–3.6k/mo in residual revenue across a passionate but niche audience.

Ho Tu Lo Shu remains a strong performer in its category: 81.6% positive reviews, $1.85M lifetime net, and steady monthly returns despite zero recent dev engagement. The game's appeal is deeply regional (Mandarin-primary audience) and genre-specific (classical-style wuxia). Acquisition makes sense only if a buyer seeks undermonetized catalog depth in East Asian markets or plans a sequel under fresh creative direction; revival investment is low-ROI unless bundled with a larger regional expansion.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Player base is almost entirely Mandarin-speaking; English reviews are sparse and reviews_per_month (31/mo average) suggests thin global growth runway.
- Risk (tech): Game is 53+ months old with zero developer posts in 15 months, signaling code and engine may not be current-gen tooling-friendly if acquired for modernization.
- Risk (other): Studio status is 'fading' with only 3 titles across portfolio; no evidence of active support capacity for sequels or major updates.

What players are asking for:
- Sequel (Ho Tu Lo Shu 2) explicitly mentioned in top review
- Continued story and character expansion in existing universe
- Potential console ports or mobile adaptation

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit lifetime player cohort and regional breakdown via SteamSpy/Steamlytics to confirm Mandarin concentration and identify any Western tail; cross-check IP ownership clarity with developer Hong Kong corporate filings.
2. If acquiring for sequel greenlight, conduct narrative and engine audit to estimate modernization cost and story continuation viability; benchmark against Crouching Tiger: Wild Kingdom and other recent wuxia adaptations.
3. For catalog-hold scenario, model breakeven on localization investment (Japanese, Korean, Simplified Chinese UI polish) to test whether $3k/mo baseline can scale to $5k–7k/mo within 12 months via regional ad spend.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/952860
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.