# Gujian3(古剑奇谭三)

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 994280
- Developer: 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司
- Publisher: 北京网元圣唐娱乐科技有限公司
- Released: 2018 · Genre: RPG · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $5.6k to $8.4k per month (mid $7.0k)
- Opportunity score: $14.0k/month at x2.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.0M · Est. lifetime net revenue: $13.1M
- Review sentiment: 86% positive across 48943 reviews (40785 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 43.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 3 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 4.8 years ago
- Store page localized in only 4 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 4.0 years (deepest tracked: -0%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $12.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $11.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $10.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $7.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

179, 175, 92, 91, 90, 72, 64, 74, 46, 62, 72, 105, 185, 93, 68, 55, 63, 47, 41, 52, 27, 33, 43, 65

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 12 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$66.8k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$168.2k to $336.5k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $84.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Gujian3 is a single-player Chinese-language action RPG set in a rich fantasy world, featuring character-driven storytelling, skill-based combat, and extensive side content.

Gujian3 has generated $13.1M lifetime net revenue from 2M units on a $30 price point, with 86% positive reviews and steady 7K/mo residual revenue. The title sits quiet in the market (zero discounts in 48 months, last dev post 2.5 months ago) but shows zero sales decline over 24 months, suggesting a resilient niche audience. For publishers seeking proven catalog depth in the Chinese domestic and diaspora markets, or for revival partners interested in localization or sequel positioning, this represents a stable, low-friction acquisition target with demonstrated player loyalty.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (market): Title is mainstream-false and operates primarily in Chinese-speaking regions; Western expansion requires substantial localization investment and marketing spend to overcome visibility.
- Risk (tech): Built 58 months ago on likely aging engine; engine modernization and console porting would be required for any revival or remaster play.
- Risk (other): Developer 上海烛龙信息科技有限公司 has only 3 titles; acquisition integrates a small, potentially acquisition-resistant team.

What players are asking for:
- Console ports (PlayStation, Nintendo Switch)
- English localization and wider international release
- Sequel announcement or DLC roadmap
- Performance optimization and quality-of-life UI improvements

Suggested first moves:
1. Validate developer and publisher IP ownership chain and confirm no outstanding licensing encumbrances or sequel rights obligations.
2. Model cost and ROI of English localization plus regional marketing push (Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia) to test whether 7K/mo residual can scale to 15–20K/mo without major remake.
3. Assess engine and code quality via technical audit; prioritize evaluation of console porting feasibility and cost as the primary value-unlock scenario.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/994280
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.