Gerda: A Flame in Winter

BirdIsland/PortaPlay · 2022 · $19.99 · Adventure · deal grade C

Measured on 2026-09-23 18:12 UTC, 12 days ago. The whole catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move fast between passes.

• Estimated net residual revenue: $845 to $1.3k per month
• Opportunity: $1.1k per month at x1.00 dormancy
• Estimated lifetime owners: 20.0k
• 95% positive across 559 reviews · 8.5 reviews/month

Why it's flagged

• Developer active, last post 11 months ago

Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Note written 2026-08-23; the live figures above take precedence over any numbers in it.

A narrative adventure set in occupied Denmark during WWII where your choices determine who survives, built on a branching dialogue system and historical fiction framework.

Gerda sits in a profitable quiet zone: $1,054/mo residual revenue on a $20 price tag, 94.5% positive sentiment, and a devoted (if small) community that values its educational weight and moral complexity. DON'T NOD's studio status is stable but the title receives minimal ongoing dev support (last post 10 months ago). For a mid-market publisher or educational platform, this is a teachable asset with built-in prestige and low churn risk; for a major acquirer, it offers catalog depth rather than growth. Most realistic play: publishing.

• Risk: Peak player count in last 30 days was 5; player-now shows 0, indicating dormant multiplayer or concurrency issues, though single-player engagement persists via reviews.
• Risk: Player reviews cite state-tracking bugs (penicillin item not registering, diary entries out of sync with choices), suggesting save-file or branching-logic debt that may frustrate new players.
• Risk: 11 discounts in 12 months (nearly monthly sales rhythm) may have trained the audience to wait for deals; current price elasticity of 1.54 suggests full-price demand is soft.

This case as Markdown · Estimates carry ±30-50% error per title.