A Merchant's Promise

Game Draft Studio · 2025 · $14.99 · Indie · deal grade B

Measured on 2026-10-02 03:55 UTC, 4 days ago. The whole catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move fast between passes.

• Estimated net residual revenue: $786 to $1.2k per month
• Opportunity: $1.3k per month at x1.30 dormancy
• Estimated lifetime owners: 12.0k
• 86% positive across 308 reviews · 7.8 reviews/month

Why it's flagged

• Developer active, last post 1 months ago
• Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
• Last discounted 0 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Note written 2026-09-04; the live figures above take precedence over any numbers in it.

A physics-based early-access trading sim where you manually load cargo, haggle with townsfolk, and manage a merchant cart across procedural routes.

A Merchant's Promise occupies a niche sweet spot: deliberate, hands-on merchant gameplay with strong community sentiment (86% positive) and consistent dev engagement, but held back by early-access instability and a very small current player base. The game has earned solid residuals despite minimal marketing spend and zero discounting; a patient publisher or acquirer could either stabilize the codebase and push toward 1.0, or harvest modest recurring revenue from the existing engaged cohort while pursuing selective revival campaigns. Most realistic play: publishing.

• Risk: Physics-based inventory system is core appeal but also the source of recurring bugs (clams won't break, cart physics cause loss of cargo); fixes may require substantial rework.
• Risk: Ultra-niche audience (cozy traders, physics enthusiasts); player churn is real despite high still-playing ratio, and peak concurrent sits in single digits.
• Risk: Sole title from a one-game studio; developer continuity and capacity to ship meaningful post-launch content are unproven at scale.

This case as Markdown · Estimates carry ±30-50% error per title.