The First Tree

David Wehle · 2017 · $9.99 · Adventure · deal grade B

Measured on 2026-10-04 19:17 UTC. The whole catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move fast between passes.

• Estimated net residual revenue: $560 to $840 per month
• Opportunity: $1.1k per month at x1.60 dormancy
• Estimated lifetime owners: 262.0k
• 75% positive across 5852 reviews · 13.0 reviews/month

Why it's flagged

• Developer silent for 2.1 years
• Studio quiet across its whole catalog
• Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months
• Proven demand elasticity: x1.2 review velocity during past deep sales

Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Note written 2026-08-24; the live figures above take precedence over any numbers in it.

A meditative 2017 exploration game where players guide a fox through dreamlike landscapes while listening to a narrative about grief, fatherhood, and loss.

The First Tree has quietly generated $561k lifetime revenue on modest marketing, maintains a 75% positive rating, and continues earning $743/mo residual despite zero promotional activity in 12 months. The title's strong emotional narrative and relaxing gameplay have created durable appeal among players seeking contemplative experiences, making it a solid catalog hold or acquisition candidate for publishers expanding indie narrative portfolios. However, the game's solo developer status, lack of recent updates (23+ months since last post), and fading studio health signal risk if long-term support or platform adaptation becomes necessary. Most realistic play: acquisition.

• Risk: Solo developer with no recent communication; studio status flagged as fading, limiting capacity for patches, ports, or community response post-acquisition.
• Risk: Niche genre (meditative walking sim) with 3 players in last 30 days and 35% still-playing rate; ceiling on monetization outside bundle/catalog strategies.
• Risk: Reviews cite collision/interaction bugs (dig action misfires, level navigation issues) that may require engine work to resolve; no patch activity suggests accumulated technical debt.

This case as Markdown · Estimates carry ±30-50% error per title.